California’s ‘Proposition 50’ Congressional Map Election Could Have Big Impact on Midterms

One of the most important elections in 2025 could have major implications for the 2026 midterms.

Californians are voting on a ballot initiative, “Proposition 50,” to determine whether the state will adopt a new congressional map that redraws five districts to be more Democratic-leaning, potentially allowing Democrats to flip them in the midterm elections.

Supporters of Proposition 50, including California Governor Gavin Newsom and former President Barack Obama, have pushed for the new map to be adopted.

Texas Republicans, encouraged by President Donald Trump, revised their maps in a rare mid-decade redistricting move that could allow them to gain five seats in 2026 and insulate the GOP from the historic headwinds the president’s party may face in the midterms.

“We have at least a chance to create a level playing field in the upcoming midterm elections,” Obama said during a recent call with supporters of the “yes” campaign.

Hannah Milgrom, a spokesperson for Yes on 50, the political committee supported by Newsom, told ABC News that the group has been working with more than 230 community organizations on the ground.

National Democrats have largely supported the initiative, hoping it will be the first of other Democratic efforts to roll back Republican-led redistricting in Texas, Missouri and other states.

But Rep. Kevin Kiley, a California Republican whose district would be redrawn and lean significantly more Democratic, told ABC News that partisan gerrymandering is a “blight on democracy” and has unsuccessfully lobbied House Speaker Mike Johnson to adopt a bill banning the practice.

“I think it disempowers voters, undermines the fairness of elections, and degrades representative government,” he said.

Spokespeople for two of the political committees opposing Proposition 50, which have the support of megadonor Charles T. Munger Jr. and former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, respectively, told ABC News that in the final weeks before the election they focused on reaching persuadable voters and emphasizing arguments about allowing voters to choose their politicians, not the other way around.

Actor and former California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who supported independent redistricting as governor, has also spoken out against the proposal. He said in September: “If you vote yes on that, you’re going backwards.”

“Proposition 50 is going to have a big impact in the midterm elections…the margin in the U.S. House of Representatives right now is so close that every seat in every state could make a difference for which party controls Congress,” Christian Grose, a political science professor at the University of Southern California, told ABC News.

If the proposal passes, Grose added, a wide margin of support could signal to Democratic donors that there is enthusiasm for the party, and could affect whether other blue or red states also decide to redraw their congressional maps.

Grose said Democrats are probably more fired up in part because campaigning to Democratic voters is the way to win on ballot measures in California, Grose said, but also because of what they see as national interests: “Democrats, maybe nationally, are seeing things as an existential threat; they’re seeing Trump as an existential threat. So anything that pushes Trump back, anything that helps Democrats, is resonating.”

ABC News’ Brittany Shepherd contributed to this report.