The long-awaited jobs report due out Thursday will offer the latest look at the health of the labor market at a difficult time for the U.S. economy.
Hiring slowed sharply over the summer, before a government shutdown halted the release of federal data on the gold standard for weeks. A sell-off in the stock market in recent days has underscored the uncertainty hanging over the economy as some investors warn of an AI bubble.
Economists expect the United States to have added 50,000 jobs in September, which would mark an acceleration from the 22,000 jobs added in August, according to a morning star FactSet data analysis.
Still, the expected figure would be well below an average of 97,000 jobs created during the first six months of this year.
Mass layoffs at corporate giants such as Amazon, UPS and Verizon in recent weeks have drawn attention to a sluggish labor market and stoked fears that job losses could spread.
However, it’s probably too early to panic, some economists previously told ABC News. While the layoffs reflect a weakened labor market and the adoption of AI in some corners of the tech industry, they added, the prospect of further job losses remains highly uncertain.
Inflation has risen in recent months while hiring has slowed, raising the risk of an economic double whammy known as “stagflation.”
Those economic conditions have put the Federal Reserve in a bind, as the central bank must balance a dual mandate of keeping inflation under control and maximizing employment.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at the Federal Reserve on October 29, 2025, in Washington, DC.
Alex Wong/Getty Images
“We have a situation where the risks are on the upside for inflation and the risks are on the downside for employment. We have a tool,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at a news conference in Washington, DC, last month. “You can’t address both at the same time.”
Still, Powell said, concern has tilted toward strain in the labor market, prompting the central bank to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in each of its last two meetings.
“A further policy rate cut in December is not a foregone conclusion; in fact, far from it,” Powell told reporters.
Traders estimate the chances of interest rates remaining unchanged next month at about 66%, while the odds of a quarter-point rate cut are 33%, according to the CME FedWatch Toola measure of market sentiment.
On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said it would not release a full jobs report for the month of October due to lost capacity during the shutdown. Rather, partial October employment data will be released as part of the November report, the BLS said.
